North Korea has announced that they have conducted a nuclear test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency, as reported by Reuters, made the following announcement.
"The field of scientific research in the DPRK (North Korea) successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, Juche 95 (2006) at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.
"It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under a scientific consideration and careful calculation.
"The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100%. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA (Korean People's Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defence capability.
"It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in the area around it."
I have not noticed a change in people around me at work and have not heard anyone talking about it...though I guess I wouldn't be able to tell since they would be talking in Korean. One teacher here that I know said that his parents are very worried and want him to come home. Considering the information that the general public in the West has about North Korea(ie crazy dictator, missle happy, impoverished people, axis of evil, etc) it is not wonder that parents would be worried about their children teaching in Korea. I think the worst part is that people just don't know anything about North Korea or Kim Jung Il, which makes it all the more freightening.
As for myself, nothing has really changed. I don't really see this nuclear test as affecting me here in Jeju though I would probably feel different if I were in Seoul or close to the DMZ. It is hard for me to imagine the power structure in North Korea going to war becuase it would surely lose that which it holds most important...namely, the complete power and mythic revere it is said to possess.
After North Korean test-fired seven missles in July (2006) I asked a Korean friend in Hawaii what he thought about it and what it was like growing up next to North Korea. I told him that of course he didn't have to say anything if he didn't feel comfortable talking about it.
"First," he said, "I don't want to talk about it. Second, there are tens of thousands of missles just accross the DMZ that are always pointed at all the heavily populated areas in South Korea. Although the US and other Western countries are making a big fuss about it, seven missles that land in the ocean don't really change the situation a whole lot for us. It is like having a sharp sword always hanging above your head. The sword is hanging by one strand of hair and you know it can fall at anytime. However, because you are born with the sword above your head and it follows you wherever your go, you because used to it and cease to notice its existence. "
"Every once in a while North Korea test-fires some missles or something and you remember the sword but, for the most part, you simply go about your life not thinking about it. It is only occasionally, when your mind wanders to the deep places in your heart, that you remember Korea is still at war and could fall apart at any time."
"The US government makes the situation worse by being stubborn and trying to force North Korea into a corner. They say things like, "You have to stop doing this before we will talk to you." This is very humiliating and only brings about drastic action from North Korea. If you want to work out your problems with people it is very important to have dialogue with them, even if they are your enemy. When there is no dialogue....well, that is what is to be most feared."
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Real Politik
OK, excuse me if I get a bit political here, but I was an avid reader of Sunzi's "The Art of War" and this will probably one of the only times I'll actually say something political ;) -
The players in this strange version of a Romance of the Three Kingdoms are going by the rules of the oldest game in political history - balance of power. It is a dangerous game, but strangely one that keeps players from directly engaging one another in complete open hostilities. One always attempts to shift the balance of power in their favor so that they have more leverage in getting what they want. As long as a deadlock remains, neither power can make any completely aggressive move. This is precisely what a nation that feels threatend would want.
Quite frankly, China and especially the US (and I'm saying this as an American citizen) are roadblocks to any effective resolution. Call me cynical, but I am inclined to believe that it is intentional. After all, every empire, regardless of any ideology they may posses, acts in a similar manner. We Americans are no different. Our government wants to keep our sphere of influence in Asia in the form of South Korea while the new Chinese Empire wants to keep its vassal state in North Korea (however unreliable and unpredictable that vassal may be). If a resolution were to somehow come about, both the Americans and the Chinese lose out in the game of balance of power because they no longer have a sphere of influence on the Korean Peninsula. The problem thus lies in the two powers of China and the US, which is why they haven't exactly been very much involved in attempts at reconciliation between the North and the South, such as the US government's failure to engage in bilateral talks with North Korea when the opportunity arose. North Korea has few cards it can play because China is not a reliable ally (for once, they're actually right in this point) and only wants to maintain an imperial master-vassal relationship where North Korea is a buffer zone with the US sphere of influence in Japan and South Korea. The cards that Pyongyang holds are not only limited but also all quite bad. Kim Jong Il acts all big and bad simply because he wants to be recognized as an independent actor and not simply just another politician or a laughable vassal of big brother China. His actions can seem idiotic yes, but he is playing by the rules of the game of balance of power.
Unless the Koreans are given the opportunity to handle diplomacy in the way that they want to handle diplomacy without the tough-guy attitude of the US or the imperial master attitude of China fouling things up, there simply won't be a resolution and the deadlock will only resume.
As far as the threat of war goes, the situation doesn't really to seem all that different between China and Taiwan. China has nuclear weapons and has thousands of missiles directed at Taipei while the Taiwanese constantly make a threat of ceremoniously declaring its complete independence and secession from China (which is of course symbolic since China considers it a renegade province). Both sides always push back and forth, but nothing particularly explosive has happened in the past five to six decades.
The Art of War
North Korea's announcement that it carried out a nuclear test (or nucular as President Bush describes it) was greeted with international condemnation. After initially describing NK's actions as 'unacceptable' China, along with Russia, said that sanctions were not the path to take.
Ogedei's comments come into new light with the new sanctions imposed on NK with Resolution 1718, passed on October 14, 2006. Immediately following the NK's declaration about going nuclear several countries, including the United States, expressed doubt as to whether the test was in fact nuclear, and if if so, whether it was a failure, success, or somewhere in between.
Although South Korea and Japan have said they are unable find traces of Nuclear fallout the US, according to the BBC website, "may have detected radioactive gas consistent with a nuclear explosion near the site of North Korea's claimed nuclear test on Monday.
Throughout the week there has been uncertainty about whether North Korea carried out a nuclear test, tried to but failed, or made a false claim.
White House officials cautioned that this result alone did not confirm a successful test but it could mean that a nuclear test had been attempted." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6051704.stm
So, did NK actually go nuclear? If so, why has the US been the only country to say it has picked up traces of nuclear matter around the site (Russia declared that the test was nuclear immediately following NK's accouncement but has not said how it came to this conclusion)? Could it be that the US knew its statement, filled with vaguaries and lack of definitive proof, would lead other UN member countries to believe NK had carried out nuclear tests would make it more likely that they would agree to sanctions against NK?
If NK did not go nuclear why would it say it had conducted a nuclear test knowing that it would only give its enemies ammunition to justify sanctions and/or military action?
Returning to Ogedei's text one must consider the complexities of the niternational game being played.
"Appear to near when you are actually far. Appear to be far when you are actually near."
-Sun Tsu, The Art of War
Interesting
I also am a fan of The Art of War by Sun Tsu. Those wanting to know more may want to check out this site: http://www.sonshi.com/
It is my opinion that sanctions are not the way to solve the challenges being faced, but rather a benefit approach would be more likely to alleviate tensions, and accomplish more, both in terms of the people of NK and the state.
I do concur that the US and China's involvement make it difficult all the way around, and especially in terms of unification of the peninsula.
Lee Lalka
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李新韓